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Hirose, Jiro*; Muramatsu, Ken; Okumura, Toshihiko*; Taki, Satoshi*
JAERI-Research 2002-009, 220 Pages, 2002/03
JAERI-Research-2002-009.pdf:13.31MB
This report presents procedures for the determination of Scenario Earthquakes for seismic design based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Recently PSHA was recognized as an important basis to identify dominant earthquakes predicted to threaten the site in future. The identified earthquakes are called Probability-Based Scenario Earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates from the studies of US NRC and Ishikawa & Kameda. The objective of this study is to formulate the procedures to determine the PBSEs and, through this application, to demonstrate the feasibility of the application to seismic design. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to determine PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and examination of uncertainty involved in analytical conditions. The results imply that the procedures based on the Ishikawa's concept is a useful evaluation technique to determine scenario earthquakes for seismic design considering uncertainty involved in analytical conditions.
Takada, Tsuyoshi; Tsutsumi, Hideaki*; Kawata, Manabu
no journal, ,
The 2006 seismic design review guide requires results of their site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for setting Design Basis Ground Motions (DBGMs) to verify seismic safety of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). All electric utilities have submitted their results of their DBGMs to the NRA (Nuclear Regulatory Authority) together with the results of their PSHA. The AEPs (Annual Exceedance Probabilities) of DBGMs reflect not only the site-specific physical earthquake environment but also degree of design conservatisms which each electric utility wants to maintain for their NPPs. The present paper, based on the publicly available documents submitted to NRA, demonstrates the AEPs of the DBGMs of 16 NPPs in Japan and shows the regulatory requirements as well as utilities' decision by statistically analyzing the AEPs, which certainly can lead to risk-informed decision-making activities for nuclear safety assurance in Japan.